RFU: Offloads 2014-2017

Graph:

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Has England produced more offloads under Eddie Jones?

No with 95.98% probability

Has England produced more offloads under Eddie Jones? No, quite the opposite. There is a very strong evidence (96% probability) that England had produced on average more offloads under Stuart Lancaster (8) than under EJ (6).

Has England been more consistent under Eddie Jones?

No with 84.8% probability

It turned out the deviation from the average number of offloads has remained unchanged throughout the entire period. More precisely, the std. deviations were equal to 4.6 under Stuart Lancaster and 4.4 under Eddie Jones, respectively. It means that the number of offloads per match deviated by ± 4.6 (SL) or ± 4.4 (EJ).

Has there been any long-term pattern in offloads per match?

No, there hasn't

There's only a very weak evidence of trend in the offload time series. No trend in this case means no particular change in the number of produced offloads during that period.
I have added a trend nonetheless. The blue solid line in the graph represents the cubic trend. It's been selected from various other trends, and even though it has fitted the data best, the fit hasn’t exceeded 15%.

Has there been any structural change in offloads per match?

No with 64.7% probability

I have also carried out a series of tests in order to detect possible structural breaks occurring between the beginning of the World Cup and the end 6N 2016. The probability of no structural change was 67.4%. Too short a period for any structural change? I’ve obtained similar results after extending the period.

Good things come to those who wait?

The trend line, however, shows that the number of offloads has started to decline during the 2014 New Zealand tour. The trend-reversal can be dated at around the 2016 Cook Cup. Interestingly enough, there is a linear trend in the offloads produced under EJ. The trend fits the data slightly better (20%). The number of offloads has increased by 0.29 per every match. What is even more important, it's been a (statistically) significant increase. So, let's wait.