MBA: Introduction to Pricing Analytics(2017)

Contact

wallusch@ikbt.org

Objectives

The main focus of this course is to develop analytical quantitative skills helpful in (B2B) pricing. The course provides the students with the understanding of probability, theory of estimation, and hypothesis testing.

Prerequisities

Mathematics, statistics, microeconomics, macroeconomics, marketing.

Textbooks

Mendenhall, W., Scheaffer, R. L., Wackerly, D. D. (1981), Mathematical Statistics with Applications, 2nd. edition, Duxbury Press, Boston

Scheaffer, R. L., McClave, J. T. (2007), Probability and Statistics for Engineers , 2nd. edition, PWS-Kent Publishing Company, Boston.

Bickel, P. J., Doksum, K. A. (1977), Mathematical Statistics. Basic Ideas and Selected Topics, Holden-Day, Inc., San Fransisco.

Kabacoff, R. I. (2011), R in Action. Data Analysis and Graphics with R, Manning Publications Co., Shelter Island.

Bodea, T., Ferguson, M. (2012), Pricing Segmentation and Analytics, Business Expert Press, New York.

Dolan, R. J., H. Simon, H. (1996), Power Pricing: How Managing Price Transforms the Bottom Line, NY: Free Press.

Software

R:
download R

RStudio:
download RStudio

R Hints

Please download all R-scripts and csv data files to the same catalogue.

Presentation: introduction to R
download file

Course Outline

Block 1: Introduction to Pricing

The Aims: To present selected problems and techniques employed in B2B pricing

The Case: Special emphasis on B2B pricing

Key Words: B2B pricing, price elasticity, price rigidities, pricing experiments, price sensitivity meter, value map, price waterfall, discount matrix, inflation, deflation, disinflation

Time: 60 minutes

Block 2: Probability

The Aims: [1] To estimate and interpret the descriptive statistics via probability distribution [2] To employ contingency and frequency tables to estimate conditional probabilities [3] To present graphically the probability distribution [4] To fit the probability distribution and to present inference based on the estimated moments

Key Words: descriptive statistics, probability, probability distribution, histogram, conditional probability

Time: 90 minutes

Block 3: Linear Regression

The Aim: To estimate the coefficients of a linear price function and to perform simulations and forecasts based thereon

The Case: The curious case of internet auction pricing: Audi Q5

Key Words:Functional relationship, correlation, regression, causality, OLS, goodness-of-fit, diagnostics, residuals, forecasting and control

Time: 60 minutes

Block 4: Modelling conditional probability: binary choice

The Aims: To model the binary-choice variable (e.g. granting a special discount, winning a project opportunity)

The Case: The curious case of granting special discounts, or how expected sales volume affects the probability of granting special discount

Key Words: binary choice, logit, probit, marginal effects

Time:

Block 5: Modelling conditional probability: ordinal models

The Aims: [1] To model the ordinal choice data [2] To simmulate probability response for various scenarios

The Case: Price change probability: historical pricing data from commodity markets

Key Words: ordinal choice, logit, marginal effects

Time:

Block 6: Modelling the impact of pricing: count data models

The Aims: To model integert-valued variables (e.g. quantities sold, numbers of sales rep visits)

The Case: final (net-net) price, sales-volume-potential, and the quantities sold

Key Words: count data, Poisson and negative binomial probability distributions, marginal effects, price elasticity

Time:

Block 6: Outlier Analysis

The Aims: To use the descriptive statistics to detect the abnormalities in distribution

The Case:

Key Words: outliers, abnormal observations, median absolute deviation

Time: 45 min

Learning Materials

Block 1: Introduction to Pricing Analytics

Please download all R-scripts and csv data files to the same catalogue.

Presentation: Introduction to (B2B) Pricing
download file;

Presentation: Introduction to R
download file;

Data: Audi Q5 pricing data
download file;

Summary: Brief summary or a dummy's guide to quantitative analytics
download file;

Yet another summary: slightly more complicated one
download file;

Block 2: Probability

R Script: descriptive statistics, histogram, and kernel density
download file

R Script: probability distributions: normal, gamma, and beta
download file

Data: NFL meets Pricing
download file;

R Script: hypothesis testing (NFL meets Pricing)
download file

Presentation: contingency table, frequency table, conditional probability
download file

Presentation: contingency table, frequency table, conditional probability in R
download file

R Script: conditional probability: contingency and frequency tables
download file

Block 3: Linear Regression

Presentation: OLS in R
download file;

R Script: OLS basics
download file

Block 4: Binary Choice Models

Presentation: Probit and Logit Models
download file;

Data: granting a special discount
download file;

R Script: binary choice in R
download file

Block 5: Ordinal Choice Models

Presentation: Estimating the probability of price change
download file;

Data: price change probability
download file;

R Script: ordinal logit in R
download file

Block 6: Count Data Regression

Presentation: Count data models
download file;

R Script: Count data
download file

Data: Data in .csv-format
download file